A strategic outlook for European fleets preparing for the next major shift in transport costs.

European transport is entering a period of structural cost change that will peak in 2026.

But the financial impact begins long before the regulations officially take effect.

Fleets planning only for 2025 risk underestimating the combined pressures that will influence fuel, tolls, compliance, and procurement throughout the next 18–24 months.

This report outlines seven verifiable cost and compliance shifts every fleet should prepare for as they finalise their 2025 budgets and plan strategically for 2026.

1. CO₂-Based tolls will expand and intensify by 2026

Directive (EU) 2022/362 encourages member states to apply CO₂-differentiated tolling.

Germany, Austria, Belgium, and the Czech Republic already use this model. Others are expected to follow.

What to expect

• Higher tolls for lower CO₂ classes
• More countries adopting CO₂ separation
• Adjustments to ZEV exemptions (e.g., Germany’s full exemption ends 31 Dec 2025)

Why this matters before 2026

Incorrect CO₂ classification or missing documentation can raise toll costs significantly — even on routes fleets consider “stable.”

Action:

Audit CO₂ classes now and model 2026 route costs based on early toll table releases.

2. Fuel prices will begin reflecting ETS2 ahead of 2027

The EU’s ETS2 (Emissions Trading System for road fuels) formally enters in 2027, but price adjustments may begin earlier.

Expected impact

European Commission modelling suggests ETS2 may add €0.10–€0.15 per litre when CO₂ prices stabilise.

Suppliers may begin integrating these costs into wholesale prices during 2025 and 2026.

Why this matters before 2026

Cross-border routes will see uneven impacts depending on national pass-through timing.

Action:

Update 2026 fuel forecasts with multiple ETS2 scenarios and revise refuelling networks accordingly.

3. The smart tachograph V2 deadline will influence capacity and costs

Under the Mobility Package, Smart Tachograph Version 2 becomes mandatory for all international transport vehicles by 19 August 2025.

Domestic deadlines follow into 2026 depending on vehicle registration dates.

Operational impact

• Workshop capacity will tighten in late 2025
• Delayed retrofits could restrict international operation
• Digital border checks will rely on V2 capability

Why this matters before 2026

Inadequate workshop availability may push retrofits into 2026, creating compliance gaps.

Action:

Secure retrofit scheduling now and plan fleet downtime before mid-2025.

4. Euro 7 will reshape vehicle procurement cycles

Euro 7 for heavy-duty vehicles applies from 29 May 2028, but its financial effects begin earlier.

Key implications

• Euro VI residual values may decline from 2026
• OEM development and delivery cycles will adjust
• Financing for diesel vehicles may tighten
• Mixed-energy fleets will become more common

Why this matters before 2026

Procurement decisions made in 2025–2026 determine a fleet’s emissions profile through 2030.

Action:

Integrate Euro 7 planning into 2026–2028 asset renewal strategies and review long-term TCO.

5. AFIR will expand charging and hydrogen infrastructure

The Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) requires major rollout milestones by 2030.

By 2026, visible progress will appear across core European corridors.

Key requirements

• High-power charging every 60 km along TEN-T core
• Hydrogen refuelling every 200 km
• Mandatory payment card acceptance from January 2027

Why this matters before 2026

Fleets piloting ZEV operations will have clearer infrastructure availability.

Action:

Map operational corridors against AFIR rollout and validate future charging payment processes.

6. Data accuracy will become a direct cost factor

With CO₂ tolling, tachograph automation, and stricter VAT reclaim requirements, administrative errors increasingly translate into financial loss.

Common issues

• Incorrect CO₂ documentation
• OBU misconfigurations
• Missing invoice metadata
• Misaligned vehicle IDs and country codes

Why this matters before 2026

Scaling data requirements without improving accuracy increases risk of failed VAT claims, incorrect tolling, or non-compliance.

Action:

Standardise fleet data fields and consolidate invoice, toll, and fuel data into a single system.

7. Route reliability will be affected by more frequent infrastructure disruptions

Across Europe, 2024–2026 has seen a rise in:

• River level closures
• Weight-restricted bridges
• Surge barrier operations
• Weather-related detours
• Regionalised access policies

Why this matters before 2026

Even without severe weather, infrastructure strain affects:

• Border throughput
• Fuel consumption
• Alternative route costs
• Delivery schedules

Action:

Model detour cost impact across major corridors and integrate real-time route analysis tools.

How TFC supports strategic planning for 2026

TFC consolidates the key cost variables fleets need to manage during the transition toward 2026:

• Unified toll, fuel, parking and VAT data
• Cross-network transparency for cost forecasting
• Verified transactions and accurate CO₂ classifications
• Faster decision-making during route or regulatory changes

This supports more predictable operations and clearer financial planning as fleets enter a new cost cycle.